{ "schema_version": 1, "generated_at": "2026-10-19T05:26:02Z", "data_date": "2026-10-17", "run_id": "2026-10-17-adequacy-2-549e7ed7", "origin_date": "2026-10-17", "units": "GWh per day", "disclaimer": "No es una fuente oficial. Cálculo estadístico de suficiencia a partir de datos públicos de CELEC y CENACE; no representa la posición de ninguna institución ni sustituye la programación del operador.", "model": { "id": "adequacy-v1", "label": "Demanda no suprimida (tendencia log-lineal con factores de día de semana y estación) menos hidroeléctrica normalizada por esa tendencia, contra techos térmico e de importación demostrados", "version": "2", "features_hash": "549e7ed721df17a9", "backtest_origins": 100 }, "data": { "usable_days": 3750, "rejected_days": 57, "demand_fit_days": 1222, "demand_growth_pct_per_year": 6.42, "hydro_fit_days": 3750, "hydro_anomaly": 0.9421, "hydro_anomaly_note": "Hidroeléctrica de los últimos 14 días dividida por su propia climatología del mismo período. 1,00 es una quincena normal; por debajo de 1 el sistema llega seco." }, "assumptions": { "thermal_gwh_day": 25.831, "import_gwh_day": 10.779, "stressed_import_gwh_day": 0.122, "other_gwh_day": 1.132, "basis": "thermal = 25.831 (largest thermal day in the 1081 usable balance days from 2023-09-21 to 2026-09-20; a demonstrated maximum, not an availability declaration — no source this project reaches publishes planned outages); import = 10.779 (largest import day in the same window (2024-08-15). About 449 MW sustained, consistent with the Colombian interconnection's usual limit); import_stressed = 0.122 (median daily import 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-10, while Ecuador rationed 14 h/day and Colombia was short of water at the same time. Not an outlier: imports ran below 1 GWh/day for 398 consecutive days from 2019-07-06); other = 1.132 (median of generación de otros tipos over the same window. Solar, wind and biomass are not dispatchable, so the median is used rather than the maximum)", "import_regime": { "state": "cutoff", "central_import_gwh_day": 0.172, "trailing_gwh_day": 0.172, "trailing_thermal_gwh_day": 23.454, "window_days": 14, "cutoff_below_gwh_day": 1, "cutoff_thermal_share": 0.7, "note": "Las importaciones desde Colombia promediaron 0.17 GWh/día en los últimos 14 días mientras la térmica generaba 23.5 GWh/día: no llegan aunque se necesitan. El caso central usa lo que está llegando, no el máximo demostrado, y lo mantiene durante el horizonte." }, "editable_at": "data/reference/adequacy_assumptions.csv", "rules": { "import_cutoff_gwh_day": 1, "import_cutoff_thermal_share": 0.7, "import_regime_window_days": 14, "tight_gwh_day": 5, "ceiling_window_days": 1095, "editable_at": "data/reference/adequacy_rules.csv" } }, "current": { "tier": "deficit", "worst_tier": "deficit", "worst_tier_horizon_days": 7, "worst_deficit_gwh_day": 5.99, "tier_code": "deficit", "tier_label_es": "Déficit", "worst_tier_code": "deficit", "worst_tier_label_es": "Déficit", "narrative_tier_field": "worst_tier" }, "horizons": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "target_date": "2026-10-24", "demand_gwh_day": 108.239, "hydro_gwh_day": 75.114, "hydro_p10": 64.725, "hydro_p90": 80.185, "requirement_gwh_day": 33.125, "requirement_p10": 28.395, "requirement_p90": 42.924, "deficit_gwh_day": 5.99, "deficit_p10": 1.26, "deficit_p90": 15.789, "stressed_deficit_gwh_day": 6.04, "margin_pct": -5.53, "tier": "deficit", "backtest": { "demand_mae_gwh_day": 1.776, "demand_skill_vs_persistence": -0.0597, "hydro_mae_gwh_day": 3.786, "hydro_skill_vs_persistence": 0.1113, "hydro_coverage_p10_p90": 0.76, "requirement_mae_gwh_day": 3.057, "requirement_skill_vs_persistence": 0.1442, "requirement_coverage_p10_p90": 0.8, "n": 87 }, "tier_code": "deficit", "tier_label_es": "Déficit" }, { "horizon_days": 14, "target_date": "2026-10-31", "demand_gwh_day": 107.722, "hydro_gwh_day": 74.712, "hydro_p10": 64.493, "hydro_p90": 81.491, "requirement_gwh_day": 33.01, "requirement_p10": 26.437, "requirement_p90": 42.943, "deficit_gwh_day": 5.874, "deficit_p10": -0.698, "deficit_p90": 15.808, "stressed_deficit_gwh_day": 5.925, "margin_pct": -5.45, "tier": "deficit", "backtest": { "demand_mae_gwh_day": 1.81, "demand_skill_vs_persistence": -0.0394, "hydro_mae_gwh_day": 3.857, "hydro_skill_vs_persistence": 0.1058, "hydro_coverage_p10_p90": 0.7917, "requirement_mae_gwh_day": 3.355, "requirement_skill_vs_persistence": 0.1092, "requirement_coverage_p10_p90": 0.8194, "n": 84 }, "tier_code": "deficit", "tier_label_es": "Déficit" }, { "horizon_days": 30, "target_date": "2026-11-16", "demand_gwh_day": 107.166, "hydro_gwh_day": 75.872, "hydro_p10": 59.018, "hydro_p90": 86.323, "requirement_gwh_day": 31.294, "requirement_p10": 22.85, "requirement_p90": 42.865, "deficit_gwh_day": 4.159, "deficit_p10": -4.285, "deficit_p90": 15.73, "stressed_deficit_gwh_day": 4.209, "margin_pct": -3.88, "tier": "ajustado", "backtest": { "demand_mae_gwh_day": 2.047, "demand_skill_vs_persistence": -0.0918, "hydro_mae_gwh_day": 4.595, "hydro_skill_vs_persistence": 0.035, "hydro_coverage_p10_p90": 0.7538, "requirement_mae_gwh_day": 3.739, "requirement_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0907, "requirement_coverage_p10_p90": 0.7846, "n": 77 }, "tier_code": "tight", "tier_label_es": "Ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 60, "target_date": "2026-12-16", "demand_gwh_day": 108.745, "hydro_gwh_day": 78.261, "hydro_p10": 68.414, "hydro_p90": 90.562, "requirement_gwh_day": 30.485, "requirement_p10": 19.679, "requirement_p90": 39.567, "deficit_gwh_day": 3.349, "deficit_p10": -7.457, "deficit_p90": 12.432, "stressed_deficit_gwh_day": 3.4, "margin_pct": -3.08, "tier": "ajustado", "backtest": { "demand_mae_gwh_day": 2.098, "demand_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0431, "hydro_mae_gwh_day": 5.427, "hydro_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0587, "hydro_coverage_p10_p90": 0.7636, "requirement_mae_gwh_day": 4.622, "requirement_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0842, "requirement_coverage_p10_p90": 0.7636, "n": 67 }, "tier_code": "tight", "tier_label_es": "Ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 90, "target_date": "2027-01-15", "demand_gwh_day": 109.316, "hydro_gwh_day": 80.876, "hydro_p10": 70.701, "hydro_p90": 93.565, "requirement_gwh_day": 28.44, "requirement_p10": 17.147, "requirement_p90": 35.951, "deficit_gwh_day": 1.305, "deficit_p10": -9.988, "deficit_p90": 8.815, "stressed_deficit_gwh_day": 1.355, "margin_pct": -1.19, "tier": "ajustado", "backtest": { "demand_mae_gwh_day": 2.294, "demand_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0192, "hydro_mae_gwh_day": 5.747, "hydro_skill_vs_persistence": 0.0968, "hydro_coverage_p10_p90": 0.6889, "requirement_mae_gwh_day": 4.859, "requirement_skill_vs_persistence": 0.1019, "requirement_coverage_p10_p90": 0.6889, "n": 57 }, "tier_code": "tight", "tier_label_es": "Ajustado" } ], "band_method": { "method": "residual quantiles from every earlier origin, stretched per horizon by the smallest factor at which the bands already issued would have covered the nominal share", "quantiles": [ 0.1, 0.9 ], "nominal_coverage": 0.8, "stretch_by_horizon": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "stretch": 1.5 }, { "horizon_days": 14, "stretch": 1.5 }, { "horizon_days": 30, "stretch": 1.6 }, { "horizon_days": 60, "stretch": 1.35 }, { "horizon_days": 90, "stretch": 1.35 } ] }, "tiers": { "definition": { "holgado": "el caso p90 sigue cubierto", "vigilancia": "el p90 queda corto, el caso central no", "ajustado": "el caso central queda corto en menos de 5 GWh/día", "deficit": "el caso central queda corto en 5 GWh/día o más" }, "tight_gwh_day": 5, "codes": { "holgado": { "code": "comfortable", "label_es": "Holgado" }, "vigilancia": { "code": "watch", "label_es": "Vigilancia" }, "ajustado": { "code": "tight", "label_es": "Ajustado" }, "deficit": { "code": "deficit", "label_es": "Déficit" } } }, "tier_history": { "horizon_days": 30, "origins": 100, "origins_followed_by_rationing": 10, "origins_flagged": 4, "flagged_and_followed": 4, "share_of_flagged_that_preceded_cuts": 1, "share_of_cuts_that_were_flagged": 0.4, "note": "Tres episodios no son una muestra con la que ajustar un umbral, y ningún umbral de aquí se ajustó a ellos." }, "crisis_check": { "note": "Un déficit es un contrafactual y no se puede medir. Durante un racionamiento sí deja una sombra observable: la diferencia entre la demanda que el modelo dice que hubo y la que registraron los medidores.", "episodes": [ { "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-17", "days": 52, "modelled_demand_gwh_day": 87.95, "measured_load_gwh_day": 85.31, "measured_suppression_gwh_day": 2.64, "measured_hydro_gwh_day": 54, "measured_import_gwh_day": 6.654, "implied_deficit_gwh_day": 0.34, "deficit_at_demonstrated_imports_gwh_day": -3.79 }, { "start": "2024-04-15", "end": "2024-04-30", "days": 16, "modelled_demand_gwh_day": 97.96, "measured_load_gwh_day": 83.96, "measured_suppression_gwh_day": 14, "measured_hydro_gwh_day": 63.3, "measured_import_gwh_day": 0.401, "implied_deficit_gwh_day": 7.29, "deficit_at_demonstrated_imports_gwh_day": -3.09 }, { "start": "2024-09-23", "end": "2024-12-19", "days": 88, "modelled_demand_gwh_day": 88.7, "measured_load_gwh_day": 68.16, "measured_suppression_gwh_day": 20.53, "measured_hydro_gwh_day": 40.39, "measured_import_gwh_day": 4.15, "implied_deficit_gwh_day": 17.19, "deficit_at_demonstrated_imports_gwh_day": 10.56 }, { "start": "2026-09-22", "end": "2026-10-17", "days": 26, "modelled_demand_gwh_day": 109.65, "measured_load_gwh_day": 102.22, "measured_suppression_gwh_day": 7.43, "measured_hydro_gwh_day": 77.77, "measured_import_gwh_day": 0.151, "implied_deficit_gwh_day": 4.77, "deficit_at_demonstrated_imports_gwh_day": -5.86 } ] }, "import_sensitivity": { "note": "El déficit y el nivel de riesgo bajo cada supuesto de importación desde Colombia: el máximo demostrado, el valor de estrés de 2024 y el régimen actual (lo que efectivamente llegó en la ventana del régimen). El caso central publicado usa uno de ellos; esta tabla muestra cuánto depende el nivel de ese supuesto.", "central_case": "current_regime", "cases": [ { "case": "demonstrated", "import_gwh_day": 10.779, "worst_tier": "vigilancia", "worst_tier_horizon_days": 7, "horizons": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "deficit_gwh_day": -4.617, "deficit_p90": 5.182, "tier": "vigilancia" }, { "horizon_days": 14, "deficit_gwh_day": -4.732, "deficit_p90": 5.201, "tier": "vigilancia" }, { "horizon_days": 30, "deficit_gwh_day": -6.448, "deficit_p90": 5.123, "tier": "vigilancia" }, { "horizon_days": 60, "deficit_gwh_day": -7.257, "deficit_p90": 1.825, "tier": "vigilancia" }, { "horizon_days": 90, "deficit_gwh_day": -9.302, "deficit_p90": -1.791, "tier": "holgado" } ] }, { "case": "stressed", "import_gwh_day": 0.122, "worst_tier": "deficit", "worst_tier_horizon_days": 7, "horizons": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "deficit_gwh_day": 6.04, "deficit_p90": 15.839, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 14, "deficit_gwh_day": 5.925, "deficit_p90": 15.858, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 30, "deficit_gwh_day": 4.209, "deficit_p90": 15.78, "tier": "ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 60, "deficit_gwh_day": 3.4, "deficit_p90": 12.482, "tier": "ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 90, "deficit_gwh_day": 1.355, "deficit_p90": 8.866, "tier": "ajustado" } ] }, { "case": "current_regime", "import_gwh_day": 0.172, "worst_tier": "deficit", "worst_tier_horizon_days": 7, "horizons": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "deficit_gwh_day": 5.99, "deficit_p90": 15.789, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 14, "deficit_gwh_day": 5.874, "deficit_p90": 15.808, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 30, "deficit_gwh_day": 4.159, "deficit_p90": 15.73, "tier": "ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 60, "deficit_gwh_day": 3.349, "deficit_p90": 12.432, "tier": "ajustado" }, { "horizon_days": 90, "deficit_gwh_day": 1.305, "deficit_p90": 8.815, "tier": "ajustado" } ] } ] }, "plant_outage": { "note": "El déficit y el nivel de riesgo si Coca Codo Sinclair saliera de servicio durante todo el horizonte. No es un pronóstico: es cuánto del margen depende de una sola central. Se resta su participación reciente en la generación hidroeléctrica nacional; importaciones y térmica quedan como en el caso central.", "site": "coca_codo_sinclair", "available": true, "share_of_hydro": 0.2444, "plant_gwh_day": 19.068, "share_days": 28, "share_from": "2026-09-20", "share_to": "2026-10-17", "horizons": [ { "horizon_days": 7, "lost_gwh_day": 18.356, "hydro_gwh_day": 56.758, "deficit_gwh_day": 24.346, "deficit_p90": 34.145, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 14, "lost_gwh_day": 18.258, "hydro_gwh_day": 56.455, "deficit_gwh_day": 24.132, "deficit_p90": 34.066, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 30, "lost_gwh_day": 18.541, "hydro_gwh_day": 57.331, "deficit_gwh_day": 22.7, "deficit_p90": 34.271, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 60, "lost_gwh_day": 19.125, "hydro_gwh_day": 59.136, "deficit_gwh_day": 22.474, "deficit_p90": 31.556, "tier": "deficit" }, { "horizon_days": 90, "lost_gwh_day": 19.764, "hydro_gwh_day": 61.112, "deficit_gwh_day": 21.069, "deficit_p90": 28.579, "tier": "deficit" } ] }, "scorecard": { "generated_at": "2026-10-19T05:26:03Z", "observed_through": "2026-10-17", "target": "net requirement (demand − hydro), mean over the horizon window, GWh/day", "units": "GWh/day", "runs_considered": 29, "runs_superseded": 1, "rows_scored": 0, "rows_pending": 108, "rows_excluded": 37, "method": "Every published run whose horizon has passed, scored under the model and version that made it; the last run generated for each origin and version only. Pending rows have not reached their target date yet; excluded rows fall on a missing or rationed day.", "by_horizon": [], "recent": [] }, "license": { "code": "MIT", "code_url": "https://github.com/rengarcia/hydro-look/blob/main/LICENSE", "data": "Copies of public data. Each upstream source keeps its own terms, listed in `attribution`; credit them, and this project, when you republish.", "data_es": "Copias de datos públicos. Cada fuente conserva sus propios términos, listados en `attribution`; cítelas, y a este proyecto, al republicar." }, "attribution": [ { "id": "celec", "name": "CELEC EP", "provides": "reservoir levels, inflows, declared bands and per-plant energy", "url": "https://www.celec.gob.ec/", "terms": "public web services of a state company; no licence is stated", "terms_es": "servicios web públicos de una empresa del Estado; no declaran licencia" }, { "id": "cenace", "name": "CENACE", "provides": "the national energy balance and live operating data", "url": "https://www.cenace.gob.ec/", "terms": "public web services of the system operator; no licence is stated", "terms_es": "servicios web públicos del operador del sistema; no declaran licencia" }, { "id": "xm", "name": "XM S.A. E.S.P.", "provides": "Colombian storage and cross-border exchanges", "url": "https://www.xm.com.co/", "terms": "public data portal of the Colombian market operator", "terms_es": "portal de datos públicos del operador del mercado colombiano" }, { "id": "open_meteo", "name": "Open-Meteo (ERA5 and forecast models)", "provides": "precipitation and temperature at the basin centroids", "url": "https://open-meteo.com/", "terms": "CC BY 4.0 (https://open-meteo.com/en/terms); the free API is for non-commercial use", "terms_es": "CC BY 4.0 (https://open-meteo.com/en/terms); la API gratuita es para uso no comercial" }, { "id": "geoglows", "name": "GEOGLOWS Hydrologic Model v2 (ECMWF, BYU; shown in Ecuador by the INAMHI–GEOGLOWS portal)", "provides": "the daily simulation the return periods in `geoglows.inamhi` are fitted on, and the daily river forecast that is one member of the inflow forecast at Agoyán, Manduriacu and Minas San Francisco", "url": "https://inamhi.geoglows.org/", "terms": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/; https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/licenses.md). Changed here: the forecast's high-resolution member is averaged to daily means and corrected against CELEC's measured inflow, and the simulation's annual maxima from 1980 are refitted to a Gumbel distribution", "terms_es": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/; https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/licenses.md). Modificado aquí: el miembro de alta resolución del pronóstico se promedia por día y se corrige con el caudal medido por CELEC, y los máximos anuales de la simulación desde 1980 se ajustan a una distribución de Gumbel" }, { "id": "geoglows_return_periods", "name": "GEOGLOWS v2 retrospective return periods (Riley Chad Hales; revision 4 of 2026-06-10)", "provides": "the store's own return-period fits, copied unchanged into `geoglows.daily` and `geoglows.hourly`", "url": "https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/retrospective/return-periods.zarr/.zattrs", "terms": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), the licence of this store alone: credit it, no commercial use, share derivatives alike", "terms_es": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), la licencia de este almacén solamente: citarlo, sin uso comercial, compartir igual" }, { "id": "ecmwf", "name": "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)", "provides": "the IFS runoff forecasts and ERA5 runoff that drive GEOGLOWS' forecast and simulation", "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/", "terms": "Copyright \"© 2023 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)\". Source www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use", "terms_es": "Copyright \"© 2023 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)\". Fuente: www.ecmwf.int. Licencia: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). El ECMWF no acepta responsabilidad alguna por errores u omisiones en los datos, su disponibilidad, ni por pérdidas o daños derivados de su uso" }, { "id": "noaa", "name": "NOAA PSL / CPC", "provides": "the Oceanic Niño Index", "url": "https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/oni.data", "terms": "US government work, public domain", "terms_es": "obra del Gobierno de EE. UU., dominio público" } ], "see_also": { "report": "https://github.com/rengarcia/hydro-look/blob/main/data/reports/adequacy.md", "forecast": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/forecast.json", "latest": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/latest.json", "status": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/status.json", "narrative": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/narrative.json", "schema": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/schema/adequacy.schema.json", "documentation": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/datos/" } }