{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "generated_at": "2026-10-19T05:25:46Z",
  "data_date": "2026-10-18",
  "run_id": "2026-10-18-mazar-4-f994d74c",
  "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
  "site": "mazar",
  "variable": "cota_masl",
  "units": "metres above sea level",
  "disclaimer": "No es una fuente oficial. Pronóstico estadístico generado a partir de datos públicos de CELEC y CENACE; no representa la posición de ninguna institución.",
  "model": {
    "id": "M3-water-balance",
    "label": "Water balance with a fitted release rule and analogue inflow years",
    "version": "4",
    "features_hash": "f994d74cd40576a6",
    "backtest_origins": 106,
    "horizon_models": [
      {
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance"
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance"
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 30,
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance"
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 60,
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance"
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance"
      }
    ]
  },
  "horizon_switch": {
    "horizon_days": 7,
    "candidate_model": "M4-gbm-direct",
    "published_model": "M3-water-balance",
    "status": "fallback",
    "reason": "in the M4 snapshot M4-gbm-direct no longer beats M3-water-balance at 7 d under the ladder rule",
    "other_horizons_model": "M3-water-balance",
    "scenarios_and_days_to_threshold_model": "M3-water-balance",
    "snapshot": null,
    "precip_basin": "paute_mazar",
    "precip_basin_fallback_reason": null
  },
  "current": {
    "level_masl": 2122.57,
    "observed_on": "2026-10-18",
    "sources": [
      "ords:repDiaHid12m",
      "ords:repDiaNivQIng"
    ],
    "storage_above_lowest_threshold_hm3": 55.98,
    "surface_area_km2": 3.294,
    "slope_7d_m_per_day": -0.335,
    "slope_14d_m_per_day": -0.6778,
    "slope_30d_m_per_day": -0.5162,
    "release_stance_m3s": 17.11
  },
  "thresholds": [
    {
      "name": "operational minimum",
      "level_masl": 2115,
      "source": "celec sur via press",
      "status": "published",
      "note": "Observed 2024-04-16 → 2026-10-09. The floor CELEC operates the plant to; lower floors are design figures.",
      "metres_above": 7.57
    },
    {
      "name": "declared minimum (report endpoint)",
      "level_masl": 2100,
      "source": "ords:repDiaHid12m",
      "status": "published",
      "note": "Observed 2014-09-20 → 2026-09-20.",
      "metres_above": 22.57
    },
    {
      "name": "declared minimum (dashboard chart title)",
      "level_masl": 2098,
      "source": "celec dashboard bundle",
      "status": "published",
      "note": "Observed 2026-09-21 → 2026-09-21.",
      "metres_above": 24.57
    }
  ],
  "forecast": [
    {
      "horizon_days": 7,
      "target_date": "2026-10-25",
      "p10": 2114.81,
      "p50": 2118.08,
      "p90": 2121.39,
      "ensemble": {
        "p10": 2117.04,
        "p90": 2123.61,
        "n": 16,
        "years": [
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2013,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ]
      },
      "median_backtest_residual_m": 0.23,
      "model": "M3-water-balance",
      "band_source": "M3-water-balance out-of-sample residuals at 7 d, this run's ladder backtest"
    },
    {
      "horizon_days": 14,
      "target_date": "2026-11-01",
      "p10": 2106.89,
      "p50": 2114.22,
      "p90": 2118.31,
      "ensemble": {
        "p10": 2113.36,
        "p90": 2123.76,
        "n": 16,
        "years": [
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2013,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ]
      },
      "median_backtest_residual_m": 0.24,
      "model": "M3-water-balance",
      "band_source": "M3-water-balance out-of-sample residuals at 14 d, this run's ladder backtest"
    },
    {
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-11-17",
      "p10": 2103.39,
      "p50": 2115.54,
      "p90": 2121.84,
      "ensemble": {
        "p10": 2109.41,
        "p90": 2128.82,
        "n": 16,
        "years": [
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2013,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ]
      },
      "median_backtest_residual_m": 0.17,
      "model": "M3-water-balance",
      "band_source": "M3-water-balance out-of-sample residuals at 30 d, this run's ladder backtest"
    },
    {
      "horizon_days": 60,
      "target_date": "2026-12-17",
      "p10": 2101.96,
      "p50": 2118.36,
      "p90": 2123.04,
      "ensemble": {
        "p10": 2114.14,
        "p90": 2142.36,
        "n": 15,
        "years": [
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ]
      },
      "median_backtest_residual_m": 0.26,
      "model": "M3-water-balance",
      "band_source": "M3-water-balance out-of-sample residuals at 60 d, this run's ladder backtest"
    },
    {
      "horizon_days": 90,
      "target_date": "2027-01-16",
      "p10": 2110.88,
      "p50": 2129.53,
      "p90": 2135.74,
      "ensemble": {
        "p10": 2120.11,
        "p90": 2145.18,
        "n": 15,
        "years": [
          2010,
          2011,
          2012,
          2014,
          2015,
          2016,
          2017,
          2018,
          2019,
          2020,
          2021,
          2022,
          2023,
          2024,
          2025
        ]
      },
      "median_backtest_residual_m": -0.02,
      "model": "M3-water-balance",
      "band_source": "M3-water-balance out-of-sample residuals at 90 d, this run's ladder backtest"
    }
  ],
  "days_to_threshold": {
    "horizon_days": 365,
    "note": "Each scenario is one real analogue year of inflow — the driest, median and wettest of the years on record for this calendar window — run through the same release rule.",
    "thresholds": [
      {
        "threshold": "operational minimum",
        "level_masl": 2115,
        "source": "celec sur via press",
        "status": "published",
        "note": "Observed 2024-04-16 → 2026-10-09. The floor CELEC operates the plant to; lower floors are design figures.",
        "across_all_analogue_years": {
          "analogue_years": 15,
          "years_that_cross": 11,
          "p10_days": 10.4,
          "p50_days": 13,
          "p90_days": null
        },
        "scenarios": [
          {
            "scenario": "dry",
            "analogYear": 2022,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 61.18,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 1929.5,
            "crossesOn": "2026-12-05",
            "days": 48,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2112.84
          },
          {
            "scenario": "median",
            "analogYear": 2019,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 87.17,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 2749.1,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2120.33
          },
          {
            "scenario": "wet",
            "analogYear": 2010,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 101.08,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 3187.6,
            "crossesOn": "2026-10-30",
            "days": 12,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2109.38
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "threshold": "declared minimum (report endpoint)",
        "level_masl": 2100,
        "source": "ords:repDiaHid12m",
        "status": "published",
        "note": "Observed 2014-09-20 → 2026-09-20.",
        "across_all_analogue_years": {
          "analogue_years": 15,
          "years_that_cross": 0,
          "p10_days": null,
          "p50_days": null,
          "p90_days": null
        },
        "scenarios": [
          {
            "scenario": "dry",
            "analogYear": 2022,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 61.18,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 1929.5,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2112.84
          },
          {
            "scenario": "median",
            "analogYear": 2019,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 87.17,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 2749.1,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2120.33
          },
          {
            "scenario": "wet",
            "analogYear": 2010,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 101.08,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 3187.6,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2109.38
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "threshold": "declared minimum (dashboard chart title)",
        "level_masl": 2098,
        "source": "celec dashboard bundle",
        "status": "published",
        "note": "Observed 2026-09-21 → 2026-09-21.",
        "across_all_analogue_years": {
          "analogue_years": 15,
          "years_that_cross": 0,
          "p10_days": null,
          "p50_days": null,
          "p90_days": null
        },
        "scenarios": [
          {
            "scenario": "dry",
            "analogYear": 2022,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 61.18,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 1929.5,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2112.84
          },
          {
            "scenario": "median",
            "analogYear": 2019,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 87.17,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 2749.1,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2120.33
          },
          {
            "scenario": "wet",
            "analogYear": 2010,
            "inflowMeanM3s": 101.08,
            "inflowTotalHm3": 3187.6,
            "crossesOn": null,
            "days": null,
            "minimumLevelMasl": 2109.38
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "reservoir": {
    "crest_masl": 2155.83,
    "crest_basis": "highest level in the record; the declared maximum is operational, not physical",
    "area_elevation": {
      "form": "A(level) = coefficient * (level - datum)^exponent, m2",
      "coefficient": 48.163906,
      "exponent": 2.5,
      "datum_m": 2036.66,
      "fit_rmse_level_m": 0.693147,
      "fit_days": 2024
    },
    "turbine_m3s_per_mw": 0.668459,
    "release_rule_m3s": [
      {
        "level_masl": 2110,
        "release_m3s": 10.47
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2112.5,
        "release_m3s": 15.09
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2115,
        "release_m3s": 29.83
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2117.5,
        "release_m3s": 27.98
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2120,
        "release_m3s": 36.18
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2122.5,
        "release_m3s": 35.26
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2125,
        "release_m3s": 35.8
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2127.5,
        "release_m3s": 48.54
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2130,
        "release_m3s": 55.53
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2132.5,
        "release_m3s": 62.14
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2135,
        "release_m3s": 69.82
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2137.5,
        "release_m3s": 53.76
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2140,
        "release_m3s": 53.53
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2142.5,
        "release_m3s": 54.04
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2145,
        "release_m3s": 57.87
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2147.5,
        "release_m3s": 59.88
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2150,
        "release_m3s": 60.72
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2152.5,
        "release_m3s": 85.3
      },
      {
        "level_masl": 2155,
        "release_m3s": 222.72
      }
    ],
    "release_rule_days": 4323
  },
  "backtest": {
    "report": "data/reports/backtest.md",
    "horizons": [
      {
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "model": "M3-water-balance",
        "n": 106,
        "mae_m": 2.14,
        "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0666,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7979,
        "ensemble_coverage_p10_p90": 0.6509
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "model": "M3-water-balance",
        "n": 106,
        "mae_m": 3.479,
        "skill_vs_persistence": 0.0359,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7872,
        "ensemble_coverage_p10_p90": 0.6509
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 30,
        "model": "M3-water-balance",
        "n": 105,
        "mae_m": 5.075,
        "skill_vs_persistence": 0.1477,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7312,
        "ensemble_coverage_p10_p90": 0.5619
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 60,
        "model": "M3-water-balance",
        "n": 104,
        "mae_m": 7.038,
        "skill_vs_persistence": 0.2749,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7826,
        "ensemble_coverage_p10_p90": 0.5481
      },
      {
        "horizon_days": 90,
        "model": "M3-water-balance",
        "n": 103,
        "mae_m": 7.456,
        "skill_vs_persistence": 0.3387,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7473,
        "ensemble_coverage_p10_p90": 0.5146
      }
    ]
  },
  "crisis_check": {
    "threshold_masl": 2115,
    "threshold_source": "celec sur via press",
    "origins_considered": 106,
    "false_alarms_p50": 1,
    "episodes": [
      {
        "crossed_on": "2024-04-11",
        "p50_called_from": null,
        "p50_lead_time_days": null,
        "p10_called_from": null,
        "p10_lead_time_days": null
      },
      {
        "crossed_on": "2024-10-08",
        "p50_called_from": "2024-10-01",
        "p50_lead_time_days": 7,
        "p10_called_from": "2024-10-01",
        "p10_lead_time_days": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "precipitation_basin": {
    "basin": "paute_mazar",
    "verified_centroid": true,
    "era5_days": 13433,
    "share_since_1990": 1,
    "fallback_reason": null
  },
  "inflow_forecasts": {
    "report": "data/reports/inflow.md",
    "note": "Caudal medio de entrada en los próximos días, por central, donde el pronóstico (años análogos promediados con lo normal para la época) supera a la persistencia y a la climatología en el backtest; en las demás se indica por qué no se publica.",
    "plants": [
      {
        "site": "amaluza",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "paute_mazar",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 39.4 m3/s beats persistence 51.1 and climatology 47.8",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 458,
              "mae_m3s": 39.37,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 43.65,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 51.06,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 47.75,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.8408
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-25",
            "p10": 21.4,
            "p50": 83.4,
            "p90": 129.9,
            "ensemble_years": 12,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 36.9 m3/s beats persistence 52.6 and climatology 42.3",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 457,
              "mae_m3s": 36.88,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 43.98,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 52.57,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 42.27,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.836
            },
            "target_date": "2026-11-01",
            "p10": 34.9,
            "p50": 93,
            "p90": 134.4,
            "ensemble_years": 12,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "site": "coca_codo_sinclair",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "coca_ccs",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 86.5 m3/s beats persistence 118.6 and climatology 94.9",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 346,
              "mae_m3s": 86.5,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 103.43,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 118.63,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 94.93,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7784
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-25",
            "p10": 118.3,
            "p50": 221.2,
            "p90": 376,
            "ensemble_years": 10,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 78.3 m3/s beats persistence 121.2 and climatology 81.5",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 332,
              "mae_m3s": 78.34,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 101.34,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 121.2,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 81.47,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.775
            },
            "target_date": "2026-11-01",
            "p10": 98.6,
            "p50": 203.4,
            "p90": 336,
            "ensemble_years": 10,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "site": "agoyan",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "pastaza_agoyan",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 33.8 m3/s beats persistence 41.6 and climatology 40.7",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 359,
              "mae_m3s": 33.84,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 40.37,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 41.62,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 40.67,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.8184
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-25",
            "p10": 40.7,
            "p50": 84.6,
            "p90": 143.6,
            "ensemble_years": 9,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 32.9 m3/s beats persistence 43.4 and climatology 37.6",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 349,
              "mae_m3s": 32.93,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 41.52,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 43.4,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 37.64,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7953
            },
            "target_date": "2026-11-01",
            "p10": 25.3,
            "p50": 77.6,
            "p90": 124.9,
            "ensemble_years": 9,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "site": "manduriacu",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-17",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "guayllabamba_manduriacu",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 42.3 m3/s beats persistence 44.0 and climatology 56.9",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 263,
              "mae_m3s": 42.31,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 50.63,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 43.99,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 56.9,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.8327
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-24",
            "p10": 120.3,
            "p50": 162.6,
            "p90": 251.3,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": true
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 41.3 m3/s beats persistence 48.7 and climatology 52.6",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 242,
              "mae_m3s": 41.31,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 49.46,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 48.69,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 52.63,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.8087
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-31",
            "p10": 112.2,
            "p50": 157.4,
            "p90": 233.6,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "site": "minas_san_francisco",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "jubones_msf",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 23.7 m3/s beats persistence 28.4 and climatology 29.8",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 260,
              "mae_m3s": 23.73,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 27.28,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 28.36,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 29.85,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7823
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-25",
            "p10": 0,
            "p50": 14.4,
            "p90": 66,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 22.9 m3/s beats persistence 31.2 and climatology 27.9",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 259,
              "mae_m3s": 22.88,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 26.77,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 31.19,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 27.94,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7976
            },
            "target_date": "2026-11-01",
            "p10": 0,
            "p50": 14.5,
            "p90": 51.5,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "site": "delsitanisagua",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-18",
        "variable": "caudal_m3s",
        "target": "mean inflow over the horizon, m3/s",
        "precip_basin": "zamora_delsitanisagua",
        "rain_conditioned": true,
        "horizons": [
          {
            "horizon_days": 7,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 13.4 m3/s beats persistence 16.9 and climatology 16.0",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 266,
              "mae_m3s": 13.4,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 15.31,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 16.94,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 16.01,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7677
            },
            "target_date": "2026-10-25",
            "p10": 15.6,
            "p50": 34.7,
            "p90": 54,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          },
          {
            "horizon_days": 14,
            "published": true,
            "reason": "ensemble MAE 12.0 m3/s beats persistence 16.3 and climatology 14.3",
            "backtest": {
              "model": "ensemble",
              "n": 265,
              "mae_m3s": 12.03,
              "analogue_mae_m3s": 14.31,
              "persistence_mae_m3s": 16.32,
              "climatology_mae_m3s": 14.27,
              "coverage_p10_p90": 0.7826
            },
            "target_date": "2026-11-01",
            "p10": 11.7,
            "p50": 29.8,
            "p90": 43.9,
            "ensemble_years": 8,
            "rain_conditioned": false,
            "with_river_forecast": false
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "generated_at": "2026-10-19T05:26:03Z",
    "observed_through": "2026-10-18",
    "target": "level on the target day, m",
    "units": "m",
    "runs_considered": 30,
    "runs_superseded": 6,
    "rows_scored": 39,
    "rows_pending": 111,
    "rows_excluded": 0,
    "method": "Every published run whose horizon has passed, scored under the model and version that made it; the last run generated for each origin and version only. Pending rows have not reached their target date yet; excluded rows have no observation on the target day.",
    "by_horizon": [
      {
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "1",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "n": 1,
        "mae": 1.6,
        "bias": -1.6,
        "n_band": 1,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 1,
        "pinball_mean": 0.488,
        "first_origin": "2026-09-21",
        "last_origin": "2026-09-21"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "1",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "n": 1,
        "mae": 1.015,
        "bias": 1.015,
        "n_band": 1,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 1,
        "pinball_mean": 0.541,
        "first_origin": "2026-09-21",
        "last_origin": "2026-09-21"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "2",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "n": 10,
        "mae": 2.885,
        "bias": 2.885,
        "n_band": 10,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.3,
        "pinball_mean": 0.975,
        "first_origin": "2026-09-23",
        "last_origin": "2026-10-02"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "2",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "n": 12,
        "mae": 1.116,
        "bias": 0.642,
        "n_band": 12,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 1,
        "pinball_mean": 0.557,
        "first_origin": "2026-09-21",
        "last_origin": "2026-10-02"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-m3-residual",
        "model_version": "2",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "n": 2,
        "mae": 1.325,
        "bias": -1.325,
        "n_band": 2,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 1,
        "pinball_mean": 0.425,
        "first_origin": "2026-09-21",
        "last_origin": "2026-09-22"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "3",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "n": 3,
        "mae": 3.552,
        "bias": -3.552,
        "n_band": 3,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 1,
        "pinball_mean": 0.963,
        "first_origin": "2026-10-02",
        "last_origin": "2026-10-04"
      },
      {
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "n": 10,
        "mae": 2.789,
        "bias": -2.58,
        "n_band": 10,
        "coverage_p10_p90": 0.6,
        "pinball_mean": 0.952,
        "first_origin": "2026-10-02",
        "last_origin": "2026-10-11"
      }
    ],
    "recent": [
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-11-mazar-3-ea679a9b",
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-11",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "target_date": "2026-10-18",
        "p10": 2118.41,
        "p50": 2121.52,
        "p90": 2124.12,
        "observed": 2122.565,
        "error": 1.045,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-04-mazar-3-5e370f38",
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-04",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "target_date": "2026-10-18",
        "p10": 2119.82,
        "p50": 2127.66,
        "p90": 2130.95,
        "observed": 2122.565,
        "error": -5.095,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-10-mazar-3-16e52b84",
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-10",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "target_date": "2026-10-17",
        "p10": 2120.1,
        "p50": 2123.2,
        "p90": 2125.8,
        "observed": 2123.174,
        "error": -0.026,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-03-mazar-3-05473ff8",
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-03",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "target_date": "2026-10-17",
        "p10": 2118.9,
        "p50": 2126.74,
        "p90": 2130.03,
        "observed": 2123.174,
        "error": -3.566,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-09-mazar-3-bd93dc4e",
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-09",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "target_date": "2026-10-16",
        "p10": 2121.4,
        "p50": 2124.51,
        "p90": 2127.11,
        "observed": 2123.524,
        "error": -0.986,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-02-mazar-2-02c685e9",
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "2",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-02",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "target_date": "2026-10-16",
        "p10": 2117.69,
        "p50": 2125.52,
        "p90": 2128.82,
        "observed": 2123.524,
        "error": -1.996,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-02-mazar-3-fa6823f5",
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-02",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "target_date": "2026-10-16",
        "p10": 2117.69,
        "p50": 2125.52,
        "p90": 2128.82,
        "observed": 2123.524,
        "error": -1.996,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-08-mazar-3-5e3bd269",
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-08",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "target_date": "2026-10-15",
        "p10": 2122.06,
        "p50": 2125.16,
        "p90": 2127.76,
        "observed": 2123.534,
        "error": -1.626,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-01-mazar-2-2e2b5b28",
        "model_id": "M3-water-balance",
        "model_version": "2",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-01",
        "horizon_days": 14,
        "target_date": "2026-10-15",
        "p10": 2115.95,
        "p50": 2123.79,
        "p90": 2127.08,
        "observed": 2123.534,
        "error": -0.256,
        "in_band": true
      },
      {
        "run_id": "2026-10-07-mazar-3-49cc1ed5",
        "model_id": "M4-gbm-direct",
        "model_version": "3",
        "origin_date": "2026-10-07",
        "horizon_days": 7,
        "target_date": "2026-10-14",
        "p10": 2123.91,
        "p50": 2127.02,
        "p90": 2129.63,
        "observed": 2124.464,
        "error": -2.556,
        "in_band": true
      }
    ]
  },
  "license": {
    "code": "MIT",
    "code_url": "https://github.com/rengarcia/hydro-look/blob/main/LICENSE",
    "data": "Copies of public data. Each upstream source keeps its own terms, listed in `attribution`; credit them, and this project, when you republish.",
    "data_es": "Copias de datos públicos. Cada fuente conserva sus propios términos, listados en `attribution`; cítelas, y a este proyecto, al republicar."
  },
  "attribution": [
    {
      "id": "celec",
      "name": "CELEC EP",
      "provides": "reservoir levels, inflows, declared bands and per-plant energy",
      "url": "https://www.celec.gob.ec/",
      "terms": "public web services of a state company; no licence is stated",
      "terms_es": "servicios web públicos de una empresa del Estado; no declaran licencia"
    },
    {
      "id": "cenace",
      "name": "CENACE",
      "provides": "the national energy balance and live operating data",
      "url": "https://www.cenace.gob.ec/",
      "terms": "public web services of the system operator; no licence is stated",
      "terms_es": "servicios web públicos del operador del sistema; no declaran licencia"
    },
    {
      "id": "xm",
      "name": "XM S.A. E.S.P.",
      "provides": "Colombian storage and cross-border exchanges",
      "url": "https://www.xm.com.co/",
      "terms": "public data portal of the Colombian market operator",
      "terms_es": "portal de datos públicos del operador del mercado colombiano"
    },
    {
      "id": "open_meteo",
      "name": "Open-Meteo (ERA5 and forecast models)",
      "provides": "precipitation and temperature at the basin centroids",
      "url": "https://open-meteo.com/",
      "terms": "CC BY 4.0 (https://open-meteo.com/en/terms); the free API is for non-commercial use",
      "terms_es": "CC BY 4.0 (https://open-meteo.com/en/terms); la API gratuita es para uso no comercial"
    },
    {
      "id": "geoglows",
      "name": "GEOGLOWS Hydrologic Model v2 (ECMWF, BYU; shown in Ecuador by the INAMHI–GEOGLOWS portal)",
      "provides": "the daily simulation the return periods in `geoglows.inamhi` are fitted on, and the daily river forecast that is one member of the inflow forecast at Agoyán, Manduriacu and Minas San Francisco",
      "url": "https://inamhi.geoglows.org/",
      "terms": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/; https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/licenses.md). Changed here: the forecast's high-resolution member is averaged to daily means and corrected against CELEC's measured inflow, and the simulation's annual maxima from 1980 are refitted to a Gumbel distribution",
      "terms_es": "CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/; https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/licenses.md). Modificado aquí: el miembro de alta resolución del pronóstico se promedia por día y se corrige con el caudal medido por CELEC, y los máximos anuales de la simulación desde 1980 se ajustan a una distribución de Gumbel"
    },
    {
      "id": "geoglows_return_periods",
      "name": "GEOGLOWS v2 retrospective return periods (Riley Chad Hales; revision 4 of 2026-06-10)",
      "provides": "the store's own return-period fits, copied unchanged into `geoglows.daily` and `geoglows.hourly`",
      "url": "https://geoglows-v2.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/retrospective/return-periods.zarr/.zattrs",
      "terms": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), the licence of this store alone: credit it, no commercial use, share derivatives alike",
      "terms_es": "CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/), la licencia de este almacén solamente: citarlo, sin uso comercial, compartir igual"
    },
    {
      "id": "ecmwf",
      "name": "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)",
      "provides": "the IFS runoff forecasts and ERA5 runoff that drive GEOGLOWS' forecast and simulation",
      "url": "https://www.ecmwf.int/",
      "terms": "Copyright \"© 2023 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)\". Source www.ecmwf.int. Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use",
      "terms_es": "Copyright \"© 2023 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)\". Fuente: www.ecmwf.int. Licencia: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). El ECMWF no acepta responsabilidad alguna por errores u omisiones en los datos, su disponibilidad, ni por pérdidas o daños derivados de su uso"
    },
    {
      "id": "noaa",
      "name": "NOAA PSL / CPC",
      "provides": "the Oceanic Niño Index",
      "url": "https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/oni.data",
      "terms": "US government work, public domain",
      "terms_es": "obra del Gobierno de EE. UU., dominio público"
    }
  ],
  "see_also": {
    "latest": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/latest.json",
    "status": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/status.json",
    "adequacy": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/adequacy.json",
    "narrative": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/narrative.json",
    "schema": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/api/schema/forecast.schema.json",
    "documentation": "https://hydro-look.vercel.app/datos/"
  }
}